As U.S. stocks flirt with new highs and recession seems less and less likely, the hardcore stock-market bears continue to predict an array of market-tanking disasters just around the corner.
I expect the U.S. market to finish the year up 5% to 10%, for three main reasons: There will be no recession, inflation will continue to contract, and cautious investors will come into the market and push stocks higher.
Still, it is always good to understand opposing views.With that in mind, here’s a look at five major fears of the market naysayers — and why they will be wrong. Markets can correct at any time (a 10% decline), but another bear market (a decline of 20% or more) is not likely on the horizon.
1. 2024 brings a recession: Stock markets hate recessions, so this would be bad for bulls. It’s a little daunting that no less than seasoned market gurus Jeffrey Gundlach and Bob Doll predict this outcome.Their exhibit A is the inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when yields of longer-term securities like the 10-year notes BX:TMUBMUSD02Y yield less than short-term paper BX:TMUBMUSD02Y. It has been seen by markets as a relatively reliable predictor of recessions in the U.S.
But here’s why they’ll be wrong this time.Inverted yield curves forecast recessions because they correctly predict monetary tightening will cause a credit crunch. This, in turn, sparks a financial crisis that tanks both the economy and stocks.
The thing is, we’ve already had the financial crisis. It was the regional-bank-sector mini-meltdown in the first half of 2023. And we’ve skated by because the Federal Reserve handled it. The Fed flooded U.S. banks with liquidity via the Bank Term Funding Program. Now we’ve moved on — except for those who hold on to the economic “hard landing” scenario.
In the meantime, market interest rates have come down, taking pressure off the credit system. Declining rates are also a form of economic stimulus. The Fed will soon start cutting rates at the short end, continuing this trend.
Outside of a credit crunch, the real canary in the coal mine to watch is business activity, notes Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Businesses are the first to signal trouble as they rein in payrolls and investment,” he says. That undermines consumer sentiment, and a vicious cycle of weakening demand and layoff risks ensues.
“Right now, there is no sign of that,” Zandi adds. “Businesses remain stalwart in their refusal to lay off workers and rein in investment. The economy continues to perform well, and prospects are improving as inflation recedes without an increase in unemployment.”
Moreover, the U.S. is in the midst of a productivity boom that will continue due to elevated business investment in new technology and equipment. Higher worker productivity boosts profits and takes the pressure off companies to raise prices.
Plus, remember that economies usually benefit from election-year spending by the political party in power.
2. Consumer spending dries up as savings decline: Consumers drive the economy, so if they really do close their wallets because they’ve burned through their COVID-era savings, that won’t be good.
But this won’t happen.First, workers cocooned by the lay-low mentality of the pandemic are circulating again. “The post-pandemic surge in labor-force participation has led to a surge in total hours, and supported growth in disposable income,” says Bank of America economist Michael Gapen.
Next, U.S. employment remains high and jobless claims are low, notes William Blair economist Richard de Chazal. Claims hit their lowest level in over a year for the week ending Jan. 13. The bottom line here is that consumers tend to keep spending until they lose their jobs.
Other factors also support consumer spending, says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. He points to boomers retiring and spending their cumulative $75 trillion net worth or passing it along to their heirs. Close to 40% of U.S. homeowners are mortgage-free, and most of the rest were able to lock in record-low mortgage rates.
A “misery index” tracked by Yardeni — the unemployment rate plus inflation — fell to 7.1% during December, well below its historical average of 9%, Yardeni says. This is one reason the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index jumped to 78.8 in January from 69.4 in December.
3. Inflation makes a comeback: Like generals, stock-market bears often make the mistake of fighting the last war. So when we learned earlier this month that December inflation firmed up, it supported the bears’ case that inflation may not be so transitory after all.
But inflation will continue to fall. For one thing, history shows it tends to fall as fast as it went up, after it spikes.Also, there’s a lot of natural downward pressure on price increases. China and Europe are suffering from weak economies. Less demand from those regions puts downward pressure on oil prices and the price of goods. “China continues to export deflation to the U.S. and the rest of the world,” Yardeni says.
Rental vacancy rates are on the rise, and this puts downward pressure on rent — the sole holdout inflation component, Zandi says.
The hidden gift for stock investors in all this is that declining inflation pushes down cash yields. This has historically sent more money to stocks from cash, notes Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian. The tipping point: 5% yields on cash. Below that, people put more cash into stocks. Money-market funds have a record $6 trillion in cash. “Both institutional and individual investors are sitting on high cash levels,” she says.
4. Sentiment is too bullish, making the market vulnerable: When bullish investor sentiment gets too high, it makes the market vulnerable to pullbacks, in the contrarian sense. I just don’t see it.Consider these data from the quant analysts at Bank of America.
Cash at stock mutual funds is one standard deviation above average. That is not elevated sentiment. Hedge-fund exposure to discretionary stocks — a bullish bet — is near historical lows. Investment-fund exposure to defensive consumer staples remains 8 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2022. Exposure to consumer discretionary is 4 percentage points lower. Private-equity funds have record dry powder (cash). Households have $18 trillion in cash, up from $13 trillion before the pandemic.
Sell-side strategists are equally cautious. Bank of America tracks a sell-side indicator based on strategists’ recommended portfolio allocation to stocks. This indicator is stuck in neutral, in line with the 15-year average. Typically, after readings at this level, the S&P 500 SPX rises 13.5% in the next 12 months. “Peak recession fears are likely behind us, but positioning still reflects more fear than greed,” BofA concludes.
5. Oil prices spike due to the Middle East war: High oil prices pinch consumers by spiking gasoline prices, and they hit corporate profits. I’m not smart enough to know if the conflict in the Middle East will shut down oil shipping lanes, leading to an oil-price spike. But if it did, the disruption would have to last for a long time to create a recession. Oil prices remained above $100 for six months after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and no recession ensued.
Meanwhile, forces including the weak economy in China and record U.S. production continue to limit upward price pressure on oil. Some analysts even question how long OPEC+ will stay unified on production limits — given that Angola just left the oil cartel.
The bottom line: Markets can correct at any time. But if I’m right that the diehard bears have it wrong, it makes sense to stay in stocks and emphasize cyclical names in consumer discretionary, energy, materials and industry, and discounted small-cap names that stand to do well as market breadth broadens.
Michael Brush is a columnist for MarketWatch. He publishes a stock newsletter calledBrush Up on Stocks. Follow him on X @mbrushstocks.
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Introduction
As an expert in the stock market, I have a deep understanding of the concepts and factors that drive market trends. I have closely analyzed the article you provided and will now provide information related to the concepts mentioned.
1. Recession and Inverted Yield Curve
The article discusses the possibility of a recession based on the inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on longer-term securities, such as 10-year Treasury notes, are lower than short-term paper. Historically, this has been seen as a reliable predictor of recessions in the U.S.
However, it is important to note that the article argues against this prediction. It mentions that the Federal Reserve has already handled a financial crisis in the regional-bank sector in the first half of 2023 by flooding U.S. banks with liquidity. Additionally, declining market interest rates and business activity indicators suggest that there is currently no sign of a recession. The article also highlights the productivity boom and election-year spending as factors that support the economy.
2. Consumer Spending and Savings
The article addresses concerns about consumer spending and declining savings. It argues that consumers will continue to spend due to factors such as increased labor-force participation, low jobless claims, and high employment rates. The post-pandemic surge in total hours worked and growth in disposable income are also mentioned as supporting factors. The article further points out that retiring baby boomers and homeowners with low mortgage rates contribute to consumer spending. The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index is cited as an indicator of positive consumer sentiment.
3. Inflation
The article discusses the possibility of inflation making a comeback. It acknowledges that December inflation firmed up, but argues that inflation will continue to fall. Weak economies in China and Europe, along with downward pressure on oil prices and rental rates, are mentioned as factors that contribute to declining inflation. The article suggests that declining inflation pushes down cash yields, historically leading to more investment in stocks.
4. Sentiment and Market Vulnerability
The article addresses concerns about bullish investor sentiment and its impact on the market. It argues against the notion that sentiment is too bullish, citing data from Bank of America that shows cash at stock mutual funds is not at elevated levels. Hedge-fund exposure to discretionary stocks is near historical lows, and investment-fund exposure to defensive consumer staples remains higher than consumer discretionary. The article also mentions that sell-side strategists are cautious, and the S&P 500 tends to rise after periods of cautious positioning.
5. Oil Prices and Middle East Conflict
The article discusses the potential impact of high oil prices due to a Middle East war. It acknowledges that high oil prices can affect consumers and corporate profits. However, it points out that the duration of the disruption would need to be long to create a recession. Factors such as the weak economy in China, record U.S. production, and potential disagreements within OPEC+ on production limits are mentioned as factors that could limit upward price pressure on oil.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis of the article, it suggests that the concerns raised by market naysayers may not materialize. Factors such as the absence of a credit crunch, positive consumer sentiment, declining inflation, cautious market sentiment, and potential limitations on oil price spikes contribute to the argument that the market is unlikely to experience a significant downturn. However, it is important to note that markets can correct at any time, and investors should always consider a diversified investment approach based on their individual risk tolerance and financial goals.
